Saturday, March 27, 2010

Does the best team win the NCAA tournament?

West Virginia v Kentucky

As a sports fan, you have to love upsets. This year's edition of the NCAA tournament has offered more upsets than our brackets can handle. But these upsets have got me thinking, does the best team really win the NCAA tournament?

Entering the tourny, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke, and Kansas were regional number 1 seeds. Kentucky got beat by West Virginia in the Elite 8, Syracuse was ousted by Butler in the Sweet 16, and Kansas lost to Northern Iowa in the round of 32.

Does this sound like a tournament where the best team wins? Not necessarily, but some top teams are still surviving. West Virgina won the Big East title, Duke is still alive, and Butler looks like a legitimate contender.

How does this happen? Well, it is a single loss elimination tournament, the games are short, injuries can happen, fouls can happen, and upsets are inevitable.

Part of the confusion however, comes from the inability to accurately rank teams prior to the tournament. West Virgina won the Big East tournament, not Syracuse, yet Syracuse still entered the tournament with the number 1 seed while West Virginia was pegged as a number 2 seed.

As well, it is truly difficult to calculate who actually plays a more difficult schedule. Overall record has a large impact on rankings, but strength of schedule is also weighed in. Mistakes are bound to happen.

Will the best team in NCAA basketball win the NCAA tournament? Probably not, but that does not diminish how outstanding this tournament has been. Cinderella stories have been popping up from every corner of the country and top teams have been slayed by tiny schools from unknown conferences.

For the record, my official pick to win the tournament has been and remains the West Virginia Mountaineers, but I won't be surprised if they don't pull it off.

Will the best team win the NCAA tournament? Likely not. Has the best team already been eliminated? Probably. Will the most deserving team win? Definitely.

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